Wind Of Change

So my prediction has come true. I predicted that WP would win the Punggol East by-election, and by a wide margin. And it has happened. As a result, the most significant tide has turned in the local political machinery; with WP doing what many felt impossible in establishing a real opposition threat to the PAP arsenal.

It looks like from now onwards, more and more WP candidates will be entering Parliament, and less and less PAP members will be there in the coming elections. For this by-election, there were just too many factors going against the PAP and for the WP.

First of all, former popular MP Michael Palmer was booted out in probably the worst possible way: a scandalous extra-marital affair from the former Speaker of Parliament. Secondly, the ground was nowhere sweet enough for a PAP comeback (not yet anyway). The problems that came up in the historic 2011 General Election have yet to be satisfactorily rectified, such as the high cost of living, transportation woes and immigration policies. Thirdly, there have been terrible local issues recently that have made the headlines: the SMRT bus driver strike that shocked the nation; the telecommunications fiasco that led to severe network outages that enraged many M1/SingTel users; the AIM IT firm debacle when ex-MP Chandra Das seemed to "too easily" win the tender for managing Town Councils' IT systems, and subsequently, the claim by WP that they were unfairly treated and maybe even bullied; the delay in the Rivervale Plaza renovations at Punggol East itself, that irritated many residents over there. Too many problems. Bad news for PAP.

Fourthly, PAP picked the worst-possible candidate for a by-election at this moment: the boring colorectal surgeon Koh Poh Koon. While sincere and sound of mind, his boring, almost-stoic facade does not energise any PAP hearts. When they needed to inspire, the PAP fell flat on their faces by choosing their own wrong candidate. I'm not saying that he won't be useful in a future General Election, but not in the current by-election (when it's basically a 1-on-1 competition). WP, on the other hand, picked the perfect candidate. Lee Li Lian, who knows the area well having fought there barely two years ago; a bubbly, fresh-faced character with a super-sweet smile. Someone who energises WP minds, and inspires the neutrals. A complete opposite to Koh Poh Koon. She did relatively well in 2011: about 41% of the votes against an at-that-time, highly-popular Palmer. The warning signs for PAP were clear for all to see.

So with the anthemic strains of Scorpions' 'Wind Of Change' reverberating in my head, the WP made history on a single night. The PAP doesn't have its own way anymore. An Aljunied GRC win in 2011? Mildly surprising. A Hougang SMC by-election win in 2012? Not surprising. A Punggol East by-election win in 2013? An area that was still always known as a PAP bastion? Pretty damn surprising. The tide has turned. From now on, WP are no longer the underdogs. And that clearly spells trouble for the PAP.